A practical generation interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed

Sang Woo Park; David Champredon; Joshua S. Weitz; Jonathan Dushoff

We investigate this approximation approach using three different examples. These examples also serve to demonstrate that robust estimates could be made with less data and potentially earlier in an outbreak -a point we revisit in the Discussion. Our initial investigation of this question was motivated by work on the West African Ebola Outbreak [47] , so we start with that example. To probe the approximation more thoroughly, we also chose one disease with high variation in generation interval (canine rabies), and one with a high reproductive number (measles). For simplicity, we assumed that latent and infectious periods are equivalent to incubation and symptomatic periods for Ebola virus disease (EVD), measles, and canine rabies.