Author: Sang Woo Park; David Champredon; Joshua S. Weitz; Jonathan Dushoff
Title: A practical generation interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed Document date: 2018_5_2
ID: jry46itn_36
Snippet: We then used our pseudo-realistic distribution to calculate both the exact (5) and gamma-approximated (6) speed-strength relationships (see Fig. 3 ). The exact speed-strength relationship (5) using a pseudo-realistic generationinterval distribution based on [7] . (dashed curve) The Gamma approximated speed-strength relationship (6), using the mean and CV of a pseudo-realistic generation-interval distribution. (dotted curves) Naive approximations .....
Document: We then used our pseudo-realistic distribution to calculate both the exact (5) and gamma-approximated (6) speed-strength relationships (see Fig. 3 ). The exact speed-strength relationship (5) using a pseudo-realistic generationinterval distribution based on [7] . (dashed curve) The Gamma approximated speed-strength relationship (6), using the mean and CV of a pseudo-realistic generation-interval distribution. (dotted curves) Naive approximations based on exponential (lower) and fixed (upper) generation distributions. Points indicate estimates for the three focal countries of the West African Ebola Outbreak calculated by [7] : Sierra Leone (square, R = 1.38), Liberia (triangle, R = 1.51), and Guinea (circle, R = 1.81). Initial growth rate for each outbreak was inferred from doubling periods reported by [7] (r = ln(2)/T 2 ).
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