Author: Sardar, Tridip; Nadim, Sk Shahid; Chattopadhyay, Joydev
Title: Assessment of 21 Days Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak Cord-id: zol1auyu Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: zol1auyu
Snippet: As of April, 6th, 2020, the total number of COVID-19 reported cases and deaths are 4778 and 136. This is an alarming situation as with a huge population within few days India will enter in stage-3 of COVID-19 transmission. In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, predictive mathematical models can help exploring of both COVID-19 transmission and control. In this present study, we consider a new mathematical mod
Document: As of April, 6th, 2020, the total number of COVID-19 reported cases and deaths are 4778 and 136. This is an alarming situation as with a huge population within few days India will enter in stage-3 of COVID-19 transmission. In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, predictive mathematical models can help exploring of both COVID-19 transmission and control. In this present study, we consider a new mathematical model on COVID-19 transmission that incorporate lock-down effect and variability in transmission between symptomatic and asymptomatic populations with former being a fast spreader of the disease. Using daily COVID-19 notified cases from three states (Maharashtra, Delhi, and Telangana) and overall India, we assess the effect of current 21 days lock-down in terms of reduction cases and deaths. Lock-down effect is studied with different lock-down success rate. Our result suggest that 21 days lock-down will have no impact in Maharashtra and overall India. Furthermore, the presence of a higher percentage of COVID-19 super-spreaders will further deteriorate the situation in Maharashtra. However, for Tamil Nadu and Delhi there is some ray of hope as our prediction shows that lock-down will reduce a significant number of cases and deaths. in these two locations. Further extension of lock-down may place Delhi and Tamil Nadu in a comfort zone. Comparing estimated parameter samples for the mentioned four locations, we find a correlation between effect of lockdown and percentage of symptomatic infected in a region. Our result suggests that a higher percentage of symptomatic infected in a region leads to a large number of reduction in notified cases and deaths due to different lock-down scenario. Finally, we suggest a policy for the Indian Govt to control COVID-19 outbreak.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and live animal trade: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and local stability: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lock delhi: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lock impact: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lock period: 1, 2
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lock population: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lock relaxation: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lockdown period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lockdown period decrease: 1
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and low number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and low percentage: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- acute sars cov respiratory syndrome coronavirus and lyapunov function: 1, 2
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date