Assessment of 21 Days Lockdown Effect in Some States and Overall India: A Predictive Mathematical Study on COVID-19 Outbreak

Sardar, Tridip; Nadim, Sk Shahid; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

As of April, 6th, 2020, the total number of COVID-19 reported cases and deaths are 4778 and 136. This is an alarming situation as with a huge population within few days India will enter in stage-3 of COVID-19 transmission. In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, predictive mathematical models can help exploring of both COVID-19 transmission and control. In this present study, we consider a new mathematical model on COVID-19 transmission that incorporate lock-down effect and variability in transmission between symptomatic and asymptomatic populations with former being a fast spreader of the disease. Using daily COVID-19 notified cases from three states (Maharashtra, Delhi, and Telangana) and overall India, we assess the effect of current 21 days lock-down in terms of reduction cases and deaths. Lock-down effect is studied with different lock-down success rate. Our result suggest that 21 days lock-down will have no impact in Maharashtra and overall India. Furthermore, the presence of a higher percentage of COVID-19 super-spreaders will further deteriorate the situation in Maharashtra. However, for Tamil Nadu and Delhi there is some ray of hope as our prediction shows that lock-down will reduce a significant number of cases and deaths. in these two locations. Further extension of lock-down may place Delhi and Tamil Nadu in a comfort zone. Comparing estimated parameter samples for the mentioned four locations, we find a correlation between effect of lockdown and percentage of symptomatic infected in a region. Our result suggests that a higher percentage of symptomatic infected in a region leads to a large number of reduction in notified cases and deaths due to different lock-down scenario. Finally, we suggest a policy for the Indian Govt to control COVID-19 outbreak.