Effect of meteorological factors and Air Quality Index on the COVID-19 epidemiological characteristics: an ecological study among 210 countries

Vali, Mohebat; Hassanzadeh, Jafar; Mirahmadizadeh, Alireza; Hoseini, Mohammad; Dehghani, Samaneh; Maleki, Zahra; Méndez-Arriaga, Fabiola; Ghaem, Haleh

The survival of COVID-19 in different environments may be affected by a variety of weather, pollution, and seasonal parameters. Therefore, the present study aims to conduct an ecological investigation on COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases and deaths influenced by environmental factors (temperature, humidity, and air pollution) using a sample size of adjusted cumulative incidence of daily cases and deaths based on five 60-day periods. Research data was gathered on official websites, including information on COVID-19, meteorological data, and air pollution indicators from December 31, 2019, to October 12, 2020, from 210 countries. Spearman correlation and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to analyze the data. During the observed period, the COVID-19 average growth rate of daily cases (r = −0.08, P =0.151) and deaths (r= −0.09, P = 0.207) were not correlated with humidity. Also, there was a negative relationship between the COVID-19 average growth rate of new cases and deaths with the Air Quality Index (AQI) and wind (new cases and wind: r=−0.25, P= 0.04). Furthermore, the data related to the first and second 60 day of the adjusted cumulative incidence of COVID-19 daily cases and deaths were not associated with humidity and Air Quality Index (AQI). The result of GAM showed the effect of AQI on the average growth rate of COVID-19 new cases and deaths. This study provides evidence for a positive relationship between COVID-19 daily cases, deaths, and AQI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-14322-6.