Author: Christopher Bronk Ramsey
Title: Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: dcmcog6l_54
Snippet: One possible scenario is that there is no intervention. In this case the model runs until herd immunity is reached (see Figure 1 ). The peak in new cases occurs around cycle 9, with about half the overall cases within three or four cycles. In this model herd immunity is reached with an overall infection rate of 41%. This is lower than the 81% estimated in the simulation model [1] , which could be due to limitations of the model here, or it could .....
Document: One possible scenario is that there is no intervention. In this case the model runs until herd immunity is reached (see Figure 1 ). The peak in new cases occurs around cycle 9, with about half the overall cases within three or four cycles. In this model herd immunity is reached with an overall infection rate of 41%. This is lower than the 81% estimated in the simulation model [1] , which could be due to limitations of the model here, or it could be due to underestimation of interactive variability in the simulation. The herd immunity level is dependent on the variability 8 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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