Public health interventions in India slowed the spread of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics

Singh, B. B.; Lowerison, M.; Lewinson, R. T.; Vallerand, I. A.; Deardon, R.; Gill, J. P.; Gill, B. S.; Barkema, H. W.

Background The government of India implemented social distancing interventions to contain the COVID-19 epidemic. However, effects on epidemic dynamics are yet to be understood. Methods Rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections per day and effective reproduction number (Rt) were estimated for 4 periods (Pre-lockdown and Lockdown Phases 1 to 3) according to nationally implemented phased interventions. Adoption of these interventions was estimated using Google mobility data. Estimates at the national level and for 12 Indian states most affected by COVID-19 are presented. Findings Daily case rates ranged from 0.03 to 30.05/10 million people across 4 discrete periods in India. From May 4-17, 2020, the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi had the highest case rate (222/10 million people/day), whereas Kerala had the lowest (2.18/10 million/day). Average Rt was 1.99 (95% CI 1.93-2.06) for India; it ranged from 1.38 to 2.78, decreasing over time. Median mobility in India decreased in all contact domains, with the lowest being 21% in retail/recreation (95% CI 13-46%), except home which increased to 129% (95% CI 117-132%) compared to the 100% baseline value. Interpretation The Indian government imposed strict contact mitigation, followed by a phased relaxation, which slowed the spread of COVID-19 epidemic progression in India. The identified daily COVID-19 case rates and Rt will aid national and state governments in formulating ongoing COVID-19 containment plans. Furthermore, these findings may inform COVID-19 public health policy in developing countries with similar settings to India. Funding Non-funded.