Author: Andreas Handel; Joel Miller; Yang Ge; Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
Title: If containment is not possible, how do we minimize mortality for COVID-19 and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks? Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: czpz3yh2_1
Snippet: In the worst case, neither eradication nor suppression until vaccines become available are feasible. In such a circumstance, if infection induces immunity in individuals -which seems to be the case for coronavirus infections such as for SARS and MERS (1,2) and likely also (3) -the best option is to implement interventions such that new infections accrue slowly and do not overly strain the health care system, while allowing the number of susceptib.....
Document: In the worst case, neither eradication nor suppression until vaccines become available are feasible. In such a circumstance, if infection induces immunity in individuals -which seems to be the case for coronavirus infections such as for SARS and MERS (1,2) and likely also (3) -the best option is to implement interventions such that new infections accrue slowly and do not overly strain the health care system, while allowing the number of susceptibles to drop until population (herd) immunity is achieved. At that point, interventions can be slowly relaxed without risking a resurgent epidemic. One goal in this situation is to implement control such that the total number of cases (the attack rate) is as low as possible. This is achieved by minimizing the overshoot, i.e., any excess infections that would deplete susceptibles beyond the population level immunity threshold. We discussed this idea previously (4-6).
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