Changes in cold-related mortalities between 1995 and 2016 in South East England

Donaldson, G. C.; Witt, C.; Näyhä, S.

Abstract Objective The aim of the study was to examine trends in cold-related mortalities between 1995 and 2016. Study design This is a longitudinal mortality study. Methods For men and women aged 65–74 years or those older than 85 years in South East England, the relationship between daily mortality (deaths per million population) and outdoor temperatures below 18 °C, with allowance for influenza epidemics, was assessed by linear regression on an annual basis. The regression coefficients were expressed as a percentage of the mortality at 18 °C to adjust for changes in mortality through health care. Trends in ‘specific’ cold-related mortalities were then examined over two periods, 1977–1994 and 1995–2016. Results In contrast to the early period, annual trends in cold-related specific mortalities showed no decline between 1995 and 2016. ‘Specific’ cold-related mortality of women, but not men, in the age group older than 85 years showed a significant increase over the 1995–2016 period, which was different from the trend over the earlier period (P < 0.01). Conclusion Despite state-funded benefits to help alleviate fuel poverty and public health advice, very elderly women appear to be at increasing risk of cold-related mortality—greater help may be necessary.