Six Scenarios for non-medical interventions in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

Kempf, Peter

We investigate six scenarios spanning main parts of the decision space of non-medical interventions against the CoV-2 epidemic in Germany. Based on the notion of interventions-lifting we classify and evaluate the scenarios by five attributes (indicators): amount of interventions-lifting, death numbers, Public Health Care capacity, population immunity, peak dates of infections. For quantitative reasoning we use a simulated modified SEIR-model calibrated with actual data. We identify margins for intervention-liftings wrt. 13.05.2020 and discuss the relation to the effective reproduction number with a 6d-generation time . We show that, in order to constrain death numbers comparable to a strong Influenza epidemic, there is only a small corridor of 16% of possible liftings, with an additional 4% margin contributed by automated contact tracing. We show also that there is a much broader corridor of 50%+18%, though not overloading critical Public Health Care capacity, implying high death numbers.