COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

In the first wave of the first 22 cases, the average hospitalization period is assumed to be 14 days. However, referring to WHO, mild cases can take up to 2 weeks to recover while more serious cases can take up to 3-6 weeks to recover. Parameters of this expanded model are shown in Table 5 . This expanded model is simulated under 2 scenarios. The first scenario is contact rate of infected person=5 under MCO1 and contact rate=1 under MCO2 to reflect 80% of MCO2 compliance. The second scenario is to reflect that MCO2 has successfully reduced the contact of all infected person to zero by day 10 (10 th April 2020) of MCO2. The contact rate=1 is used for the first 10 days and reduced to zero for the last 4 days of the MCO2. This reduced contact rate is shown in Figure 22 . the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.