A Proof Of Concept For A Syndromic Surveillance System Based On Routine Ambulance Records In The South-west Of England, For The Influenza Season 2016/17

Thilo Reich; Marcin Budka

The ePCR data is mirrored in both the sentinel and non-sentinel laboratory confirmed influenza cases. The ePCR data has a stronger similarity to the non-sentinel surveillance systems which could be explained because all patients are included regardless of symptoms which is also true for the non-sentinel surveillance system. It has to be noted that as the data sources are from different populations and based on different diagnoses. This complicates the proof of causality between the two curves. However, a conducted Granger causality test was significant suggesting that in the absence of a more likely explanation the peak seen in the ePCR data is most likely caused by influenza cases. Some unknown proportion of pyrexia cases will be caused by other infections but if can be expected that the majority was caused by the circulating seasonal influenza virus.