A snap shot of space and time dynamics of COVID-19 risk in Malawi. An application of spatial temporal model

Ngwira, A.; Kumwenda, F.; Munthali, E.; Nkolokosa, D.

Background: COVID-19 has been the greatest challenge the world has faced since the second world war. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of COVID-19 in both space and time in Malawi. Methods: The study used publicly available data of COVID-19 cases for the period from 24th June to 20th August, 2020. Semiparametric spatial temporal models were fitted to the number of weekly confirmed cases as an outcome data, with time and location as independent variables. Results: The study found significant main effect of location and time with the two interacting. The spatial distribution of COVID-19 showed major cities being at greater risk than rural areas. Over time the COVID-19 risk was increasing then decreasing in most districts with the rural districts being consistently at lower risk. Conclusion. Future or present strategies to avert the spread of COVID-19 should target major cities by limiting international exposure. In addition, the focus should be on time points that had shown high risk.