Epidemiological impact of prioritizing SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by antibody status: Mathematical modeling analyses

Ayoub, H. H.; Chemaitelly, H.; Makhoul, M.; Al Kanaani, Z.; Al Kuwari, E.; Butt, A. A.; Coyle, P.; Jeremijenko, A.; Kaleeckal, A. H.; Latif, A. N.; Shaik, R. M.; Abdul Rahim, H. F.; Nasrallah, G. K.; Yassine, H. M.; Al Kuwari, M. G.; Al Romaihi, H. E.; Al-Thani, M. H.; Bertollini, R.; Al Khal, A.; Abu-Raddad, L. J.

Background: Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been developed, but their availability falls far short of global needs. This study aimed to investigate the impact of prioritizing available doses on the basis of recipient antibody status, that is by exposure status, using Qatar as an example. Methods: Vaccination impact was assessed under different scale-up scenarios using a deterministic meta-population mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the presence of vaccination. Results: For a vaccine that protects against infection with an efficacy of 95%, half as many vaccinations were needed to avert one infection, disease outcome, or death by prioritizing antibody-negative individuals for vaccination. Prioritization by antibody status reduced incidence at a faster rate and led to faster elimination of infection and return to normalcy. Further prioritization by age group amplified the gains of prioritization by antibody status. Gains from prioritization by antibody status were largest in settings where the proportion of the population already infected at the commencement of vaccination was 30-60%, which is perhaps where most countries will be by the time vaccination programs are up and running. For a vaccine that only protects against disease and not infection, vaccine impact was reduced by half, whether this impact was measured in terms of averted infections or disease outcomes, but the relative gains from using antibody status to prioritize vaccination recipients were similar. Conclusions: Major health, societal, and economic gains can be achieved more quickly by prioritizing those who are antibody-negative while doses of the vaccine remain in short supply.