COVID-19 most vulnerable Mexican cities lack the public health infrastructure to face the pandemic: a new temporally-explicit model

Wesley Dattilo; Alcides Castro e Silva; Roger Guevara; Ian MacGregor-Fors; Servio Pontes Ribeiro

One of the main factors behind the quick dispersion rate of SARS-CoV-2 is its contagion profile. This virus is transmitted through respiratory droplets of infected persons, produced by breathing, sneezing and coughing, and into another individual via mucous membranes (e.g., nose, mouth, and eyes). Thus, the proximity between individuals and their long-distance mobility are two of the main drivers that have been identified in explaining the rapid dispersion of this new airborne disease. Hence, social distancing together with the isolation of infected patients have been suggested as two of the best procedures to decrease infection rates in the absence of a vaccine or other effective treatments (5) . In fact, governments from across the globe have promoted lockdowns in the past few weeks. Nonetheless, immerse in globalized practices that demand high mobility of large numbers of people, the daily migration rate across cities, . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.