Author: Wesley Dattilo; Alcides Castro e Silva; Roger Guevara; Ian MacGregor-Fors; Servio Pontes Ribeiro
Title: COVID-19 most vulnerable Mexican cities lack the public health infrastructure to face the pandemic: a new temporally-explicit model Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: ghh16h43_21
Snippet: To assess our main goal, we introduced two modifications to the original SIR model in order to simulate the vulnerability of Mexican cities to COVID-19. The first modification refers to the fact that we are applying the model simultaneously among interconnected cities. Thus, our model has S i , I i and R i , where i defines any of the focal cities. We also modified the model to incorporate the spread of the disease under a graph topology defined .....
Document: To assess our main goal, we introduced two modifications to the original SIR model in order to simulate the vulnerability of Mexican cities to COVID-19. The first modification refers to the fact that we are applying the model simultaneously among interconnected cities. Thus, our model has S i , I i and R i , where i defines any of the focal cities. We also modified the model to incorporate the spread of the disease under a graph topology defined by regular flights among the 50 focal cities (i.e., representation of a graph in the plane, where the vertices are represented by differing points and the edges) (Code S1). Using the OpenFlights database (14), we were able to track all flights departing and arriving to the airports of the 50 assessed Mexican cities (Dataset S1). Thus, our model (referred to as SIR-Net model hereafter) takes the following form:
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