Impact of healthcare worker shift scheduling on workforce preservation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Dan M Kluger; Yariv Aizenbud; Ariel Jaffe; Lilach Aizenbud; Fabio Parisi; Eyal Minsky-Fenick; Jonathan M Kluger; Shelli Farhadian; Harriet M Kluger; Yuval Kluger

The rotation length that minimizes failure probability mainly depends on two factors: the median SARS-CoV-2 latent period, which is not precisely known, and the average hospitalization duration, and further understanding of the relationship between these factors is needed to make strong recommendations about optimal rotation length. However, in all simulations analyzed, physician and nurse rotation lengths of 1-3 days led to higher team failure rates; shorter rotations result in exposure of more HCWs to an infected patient. When the average patient stay is much longer than 5 days or when the median latent period is much shorter than 4 days, the benefit of un-staggering rotations decreases (data not shown). When patient stays are short, such as on maternity wards, the advantage of un-staggered rotations is consistent and universal across various parameters. Of note, because the actual probability of team failure is sensitive to other unknown parameters, plots such as those in Figure 1 should be used only to design optimal scheduling of shifts and not to forecast the actual probability of team failure.