Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas

Xutong Wang; Remy F Pasco; Zhanwei Du; Michaela Petty; Spencer J Fox; Alison P Galvani; Michael Pignone; S. Claiborne Johnston; Lauren Ancel Meyers

Age-stratified contact rates [29] were derived from the POLYMOD diary-based study in Europe [34] and separated in contacts occurring at home, at school, at work and elsewhere. We used the national US age distribution [35] to aggregate these estimates from 17 to the five age groups of our model (Tables S1.4-S1.7). We combined these matrices to model four different types of days: (i) normal school days (all contacts), (ii) normal weekends and short weekday holidays (all but school and work contacts; adults are assumed to work during the long summer break), (iii) weekdays during school closures/social distancing, (iv) weekend or weekday holiday during school closure/social distancing. To model school closures with social distancing, we included all household contacts plus a specified proportion of contacts outside the home. On weekdays, this included a proportion of contacts occurring at work and elsewhere; on weekends and holidays (excluding summer vacation) this included just contacts occurring elsewhere.