Author: Wesley Dattilo; Alcides Castro e Silva; Roger Guevara; Ian MacGregor-Fors; Servio Pontes Ribeiro
Title: COVID-19 most vulnerable Mexican cities lack the public health infrastructure to face the pandemic: a new temporally-explicit model Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: ghh16h43_6
Snippet: We used a new temporally-explicit model focused on air transportation networks to predict the vulnerability of 50 focal Mexican cities to COVID-19. We found that most vulnerable cities lack of the required public health infrastructure (i.e., number of inpatient and intensive care unit beds) to face this new pandemic, overloading in all cases after 100 days. However, our results show that a 45% social distancing scenario can reduce the number of i.....
Document: We used a new temporally-explicit model focused on air transportation networks to predict the vulnerability of 50 focal Mexican cities to COVID-19. We found that most vulnerable cities lack of the required public health infrastructure (i.e., number of inpatient and intensive care unit beds) to face this new pandemic, overloading in all cases after 100 days. However, our results show that a 45% social distancing scenario can reduce the number of infected people by up to 78.7%, flattening the growth rate of people with COVID-19 before infection rates soar exponentially countrywide.
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