Covid-19 Outbreak Progression in Italian Regions: Approaching the Peak by March 29th

COSIMO DISTANTE; PRISCO PISCITELLI; ALESSANDRO MIANI

Suspects correspond to the number of individuals screened with test which have been confirmed. Figure 3 and Table 1 show the estimated values, computed on a daily basis for the Italian regions a for the initial outbreak region Lombardy, where about 40 cases were confirmed out of 100 suspec ( Figure 4 ).The two methods provide agreements of values, although the first method based on exponent fit should provide a better estimation, being computed on the entire time series. From Figure 3 , it com an important aspect with respect to the Wuhan as reported in [6] . author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. We used the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model [4] to simulate epidemic since was established on January 2020. It is based on a previous model SIR which was based on thr compartments, but since the infection has an incubation period, the compartment E (Exposed) is include This compartments are modeled over the time, and capture the changes in the population. Let us say th given N the total population, then N=S+E+I+R, where: