COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Yohannes Kinfu; Uzma Alam; Tom Achoki

Effective detection and response to epidemics is premised on decision makers having the right epidemiological information. Unfortunately, many countries in Africa have weak health information systems that are not able to collect and process data rapidly to facilitate timely and targeted action. For example, Lesotho, despite being in the same region and with closer proximity to South Africa and Swaziland, countries that are at the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southern Africa subregion, is yet to register a confirmed case. This is a clear example of the gap in diagnostic capacity and health information system rather than the absence of infection in the country. Hence, the fight to stop the pandemic in Africa should be focused on both strengthening clinical capacity as well reporting systems within the health care system. Innovations around collecting data through digital platforms make it easier to combine different data streams, thereby helping decision-makers gain a better understanding of epidemics and the impact of the interventions. (48) (49) (50) (51) (52) With close to 747 million SIM connections in Sub-Saharan Africa, representing 74% of the population on the continent, (53) the response to the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity for countries to retool their data collection systems to meet their surveillance needs.