Author: Thilo Reich; Marcin Budka
Title: A Proof Of Concept For A Syndromic Surveillance System Based On Routine Ambulance Records In The South-west Of England, For The Influenza Season 2016/17 Document date: 2018_11_9
ID: j3o0fko1_69
Snippet: The weekly data was smoothed using the EMA of 21 days (or 3 sample points), before the sliding CR 21 was calculated ( Figure 5 ). The smoothed weekly dataset peaked in week 51/2016 with 919 (21.64% ) pyretic patients of 4814 total calls. The final CR 21 change to >1 indicating the start of the outbreak was reached in week 44/2017 with 485.5 (12.5% ) pyretic patients of 3868 calls. This case number is 18.40% below the baseline (565) and within the.....
Document: The weekly data was smoothed using the EMA of 21 days (or 3 sample points), before the sliding CR 21 was calculated ( Figure 5 ). The smoothed weekly dataset peaked in week 51/2016 with 919 (21.64% ) pyretic patients of 4814 total calls. The final CR 21 change to >1 indicating the start of the outbreak was reached in week 44/2017 with 485.5 (12.5% ) pyretic patients of 3868 calls. This case number is 18.40% below the baseline (565) and within the standard deviation (122.33). Once again, the outbreak could not be detected using a threshold method as the number is below the baseline (565) as well as the mean (644.87). Smoothing of the weekly data slightly improved specificity to 99.1% with sensitivity remaining at 100% .
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