Spatial Components in Disease Modelling

Kwong, Kim-hung; Lai, Poh-chin

Modelling of infectious diseases could help gain further understanding of their diffusion processes that provide knowledge on the detection of epidemics and decision making for future infection control measures. Conventional disease transmission models are inadequate in considering the diverse nature of a society and its location-specific factors. A new approach incorporating stochastic and spatial factors is necessary to better reflect the situation. However, research on risk factors in disease diffusion is limited in numbers. This paper mapped the different phases of spatial diffusion of SARS in Hong Kong to explore the underlying spatial factors that may have interfered and contributed to the transmission patterns of SARS. Results of the current study provide important bases to inform relevant environmental attributes that could potentially improve the spatial modelling of an infectious disease.