Daily CO2 emission reduction indicates the control of activities to contain COVID-19 in China

Wang, Rong; Xiong, Yuankang; Xing, Xiaofan; Yang, Ruipu; Li, Jiarong; Wang, Yijing; Cao, Junji; Balkanski, Yves; Peñuelas, Josep; Ciais, Philippe; Hauglustaine, Didier; Sardans, Jordi; Chen, Jianmin; Ma, Jianmin; Xu, Tang; Kan, Haidong; Zhang, Yan; Oda, Tomohiro; Morawska, Lidia; Zhang, Renhe; Tao, Shu

Lockdown measures are essential to containing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but they will slow down economic growth by reducing industrial and commercial activities. However, the benefits of activity control from containing the pandemic has not been examined and assessed. Here we use daily carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction in China estimated from statistical data of energy consumption and satellite data of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) as an indicator for reduced activities consecutive to a lockdown. We perform a correlation analysis to show that a 1% day-1 decrease in the rate of COVID-19 cases is associated with a reduction in daily CO2 emissions of 0.22±0.02% using statistical data of energy consumption relative to emissions without COVID-19, or 0.20±0.02% using satellite data of atmospheric column NO2. We estimate that swift action in China is effective in limiting the number of COVID-19 cases <100,000 with a reduction in CO2 emissions of up to 23% by the end of February 2020, whereas a one-week delay would have required greater containment and a doubling of the emission reduction to meet the same goal. By analyzing the costs of health care and fatalities, we find that the benefits on public-health due to reduced activities in China are ten-fold larger than the loss of gross domestic product. Our findings suggest an unprecedentedly high cost of maintaining activities and CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and stress substantial benefits of containment in public health by taking early actions to reduce activities during the outbreak of COVID-19.