Influence of extreme weather and meteorological anomalies on outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1)

Xiao, Hong; Tian, HuaiYu; Lin, XiaoLing; Gao, LiDong; Dai, XiangYu; Zhang, XiXing; Chen, BiYun; Zhao, Jian; Xu, JingZhe

Biological experiments and epidemiological evidence indicate that variations in environment have important effect on the occurrence and transmission of epidemic influenza. It is therefore important to understand the characteristic patterns of transmission for prevention of disease and reduction of disease burden. Based on case records, we analyzed the environmental characteristics including climate variables in Changsha, and then constructed a meteorological anomaly susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model on the basis of the results of influenza A (H1N1) transmission. The results showed that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha showed significant correlation with meteorological conditions; the spread of influenza was sensitive to meteorological anomalies, and that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha was influenced by a combination of absolute humidity anomalous weather conditions, contact rates of the influenza patients and changes in population movements. These findings will provide helpful information regarding prevention strategies under different conditions, a fresh understanding of the emergence and re-emergence of influenza outbreaks, and a new perspective on the transmission dynamics of influenza.