Importance of suppression and mitigation measures in managing COVID-19 outbreaks

Michael E. Hochberg

Control strategies in one country, however, are not always applicable in others, due for example to cultural and logistical differences (21) . Mathematical models based on empirical data have a role to play in adapting capacities to address epidemics, both as conceptual aids and management tools. The present study explored two types of intervention that can contribute to reducing the impact of COVID-19 epidemics. 'Suppression measures' would be adopted by communities that either initially decided not (or did, but were unable) to mitigate the exponential increase of new cases. Suppression reduces the reproduction number sufficiently below 1.0, and in so doing lower the number of infectious cases to a manageable level. 'Mitigation measures' may either be introduced as a preventive approach, whereby communities begin to manage very early in the outbreak, gradually introduced towards the end of suppression, or for countries unable or unwilling to enforce suppression measures, the only route possible to flatten the epidemic curve. The sequence of measures that we are observing in a number of countries, and likely to see in future months, can be symbolically represented as: