Author: Janik Schuttler; Reinhard Schlickeiser; Frank Schlickeiser; Martin Kroger
Title: Covid-19 predictions using a Gauss model, based on data from April 2 Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 14x9luqu_2
Snippet: The Gaussian model maps time to the bell-shaped Gauss function to fit existing data of deaths per day and country, and to use this fit to extrapolate the deaths per day to future times. Though the GM may appear too simple to be predictive, and it most likely is, we can justify its use by several arguments: 1) the GM captures the data available today well, including the entire first epidemic wave in China, and 2) epidemics are initially exponentia.....
Document: The Gaussian model maps time to the bell-shaped Gauss function to fit existing data of deaths per day and country, and to use this fit to extrapolate the deaths per day to future times. Though the GM may appear too simple to be predictive, and it most likely is, we can justify its use by several arguments: 1) the GM captures the data available today well, including the entire first epidemic wave in China, and 2) epidemics are initially exponential and eventually saturating processes in cumulative quantities and thus give rise to bell-shaped daily quantities, like the Gaussian function -all of which we will explain in detail.
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