COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care: computer simulation study

Richard M Wood; Christopher J McWilliams; Matthew J Thomas; Christopher P Bourdeaux; Christos Vasilakis

Key simulation output measures of interest consist of the duration of time at maximum capacity (to inform workforce requirements), peak capacity-dependent deaths per day (for mortuary planning), and total capacity-dependent deaths over the course of the pandemic (as an ultimate marker of intervention efficacy, in balancing demand and capacity). Quantiles, including inter-quartile range (IQR) and 95% confidence intervals, are calculated based on the variation in output measure observed across the 1000 replications performed for each scenario. Table 2 . Simulation scenarios considered in this study. Note that strategies under Scenarios 1-5 relate to the epidemic curves for cases requiring intensive care equivalent to those contained in Figure 1 , with Scenarios 6 and 7 based upon a 50% flattened version of the Isolation curve containing the same total demand but spread over a 1.5-fold longer period of time.