Vulnerability and Burden of All-Cause Mortality Associated with Particulate Air Pollution during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nationwide Observed Study in Italy

Ye, Tingting; Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Wenhua; Chen, Zhaoyue; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan

Background: Limited evidence is available on the health effects of particulate matter (PM including PM(2.5) with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm; PM(10), ≤ 10 μm; PM(2.5–10), 2.5–10 μm) during the pandemic of COVID-19 in Italy. The aims of the study were to examine the associations between all-cause mortality and PM in the pandemic period and compare them to the normal periods (2015–2019). Methods: We collected daily data regarding all-cause mortality (stratified by age and gender), and PM concentrations for 107 Italian provinces from 1 January 2015 to 31 May 2020. A time-stratified case-cross design with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the association between PM and all-cause mortality. We also compared the counts and fractions of death attributable to PM in two periods. Results: Italy saw an increase in daily death counts while slight decreases in PM concentrations in pandemic period. Each 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM was associated with much higher increase in daily all-cause mortality during the pandemic period compared to the same months during 2015–2019 (increased mortality rate: 7.24% (95%CI: 4.84%, 9.70%) versus 1.69% (95%CI: 1.12%, 2.25%) for PM(2.5); 3.45% (95%CI: 2.58%, 4.34%) versus 1.11% (95%CI: 0.79%, 1.42%) for PM(10); 4.25% (95%CI: 2.99%, 5.52%) versus 1.76% (95%CI: 1.14%, 2.38%) for PM(2.5–10)). The counts and fractions of deaths attributable to PM were higher in 2020 for PM(2.5) (attributable death counts: 20,062 versus 3927 per year in 2015–2019; attributable fractions: 10.2% versus 2.4%), PM(10) (15,112 versus 3999; 7.7% versus 2.5%), and PM(2.5–10) (7193 versus 2303; 3.7% versus 1.4%). Conclusion: COVID-19 pandemic increased the vulnerability and excess cases of all-cause mortality associated with short-term exposure to PM(2.5), PM(2.5–10), and PM(10) in Italy, despite a decline in air pollution level.