Associations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 rates in days after sampling in small urban areas of Seville: A time series study

Rodríguez Rasero, Francisco Javier; Moya Ruano, Luis A.; Rasero Del Real, Pablo; Cuberos Gómez, Lucila; Lorusso, Nicola

Wastewater surveillance systems for SARS-CoV-2 can be used to support public health decisions, complementary to clinical surveillance. We examined the lead-lag associations between SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies in wastewater and COVID-19 rates in relatively small urban areas of Seville, adjusting for internal mobility, temperature, and wastewater-related variables. The association COVID-19 rates-RNA copies were statistically significant from three to 27 days after sampling. Temperature is a confounding factor for both viral RNA counts and mobility. The model that best fitted data used cases six days after sampling. A logarithmic unit increase in viral RNA count in wastewater was associated with a 26.9% increase in COVID-19 rate per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 13.1-42.4%), within the urban area, six days later. Surveillance system for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater has great potential for public health. Knowing the specific association between SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies in wastewater and COVID-19 daily rates may help to improve its performance.