Author: Xutong Wang; Remy F Pasco; Zhanwei Du; Michaela Petty; Spencer J Fox; Alison P Galvani; Michael Pignone; S. Claiborne Johnston; Lauren Ancel Meyers
Title: Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: n0nch8he_59
Snippet: Our epidemiological projections and conclusions regarding the urgent need for extensive social distancing are consistent with a recent analysis by Imperial College [40] . However, we assume that a lower percent of hospitalized patients receive critical care (15-20% versus 30%), and consequently project a lower peak ICU demand. In sensitivity analyses with more extreme assumptions about critical care requirements, the projected peak demand rises a.....
Document: Our epidemiological projections and conclusions regarding the urgent need for extensive social distancing are consistent with a recent analysis by Imperial College [40] . However, we assume that a lower percent of hospitalized patients receive critical care (15-20% versus 30%), and consequently project a lower peak ICU demand. In sensitivity analyses with more extreme assumptions about critical care requirements, the projected peak demand rises accordingly. The local focus of our model, which incorporates city-specific data regarding demographics, high-risk conditions, contact patterns, and healthcare resource availability, allows us to project near-term healthcare demands and provide actionable insights for local healthcare and governmental decision-makers.
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