Selected article for: "care capacity and health system capacity"
Author: Clément Massonnaud; Jonathan Roux; Pascal Crépey
Title: COVID-19: Forecasting short term hospital needs in France
  • Document date: 2020_3_20
    • ID: i46n70gb_32
    Snippet: COVID-19 mortality risk is not only dependent on the intrinsic virus' characteristics, but depends also on health care capacities, especially ICU. Italy is already seeing its ICU capacities exceeded, as well as several hospitals in France. However, few studies have tried to forecast ICU needs. Grasselli and colleagues used linear and exponential models to estimate ICU demand in Lombardy, Italy, from March 7 to March 20 28 . They concluded that th.....
    Document: COVID-19 mortality risk is not only dependent on the intrinsic virus' characteristics, but depends also on health care capacities, especially ICU. Italy is already seeing its ICU capacities exceeded, as well as several hospitals in France. However, few studies have tried to forecast ICU needs. Grasselli and colleagues used linear and exponential models to estimate ICU demand in Lombardy, Italy, from March 7 to March 20 28 . They concluded that the health care system could not sustain an uncontrolled outbreak, and that strong containment measures were needed. Remuzzi and Remuzzi fitted exponential models and predicted that the Italian health care system could be at maximum capacity by March 14 29 . Here, we found that ICU capacities would be rapidly exceeded in several Regions in France, even in optimistic scenarios. Incapacity to provide adequate treatment to critically ill patients could further increase the already substantial death toll of the epidemic.

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