The first sixty days of COVID-19 in a humanitarian response setting: a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the outbreak in South Sudan

Waya, Joy Luba Lomole; Lako, Richard; Bunga, Sudhir; Chun, Helen; Mize, Valerie; Ambani, Boniface; Wamala, Joseph Francis; Guyo, Argata Guracha; Gray, John Henry; Gai, Malick; Maleghemi, Sylvester; Kol, Matthew; Rumunu, John; Tukuru, Michael; Olu, Olushayo Oluseun

INTRODUCTION: the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. South Sudan, a low-income and humanitarian response setting, reported its first case of COVID-19 on April 5, 2020. We describe the socio-demographic and epidemiologic characteristics of COVID-19 cases in this setting. METHODS: we conducted a cross-sectional descriptive analysis of data for 1,330 confirmed COVID-19 cases from the first 60 days of the outbreak. RESULTS: among the 1,330 confirmed cases, the mean age was 37.1 years, 77% were male, 17% were symptomatic with 95% categorized as mild, and the case fatality rate was 1.1%. Only 24.7% of cases were detected through alerts and sentinel site surveillance, with 95% of the cases reported from the capital, Juba. Epidemic doubling time averaged 9.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.7 - 13.4), with an attack rate of 11.5 per 100,000 population. Test positivity rate was 18.2%, with test rate per 100,000 population of 53 and mean test turn-around time of 9 days. The case to contact ratio was 1: 2.2. CONCLUSION: this 2-month initial period of COVID-19 in South Sudan demonstrated mostly young adults and men affected, with most cases reported as asymptomatic. Systems´ limitations highlighted included a small proportion of cases detected through surveillance, low testing rates, low contact elicitation, and long collection to test turn-around times limiting the country´s ability to effectively respond to the outbreak. A multi-pronged response including greater access to testing, scale-up of surveillance, contact tracing and community engagement, among other interventions are needed to improve the COVID-19 response in this setting.