Importance of Social Distancing: Modeling the spread of 2019-nCoV using Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-t model

Nipun aggarwal

The methods used in this paper involve the simulation on Epinions social network as the topology of spread, using the general consumer review website with the same name. Members of the site can decide whether to trust each other, thus simulating the interactions between people in a total population of 75879 with about 508837 connections in these people representing potential transfer among these people [7] . The traditional model used to study diseases is usually the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-model, which is a popular model to simulate outbreaks, including the 2019-nCoV [8] . This model may be extended to include a quarantine state to give the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered model [9] . This paper uses a modified version of this model, considering that the infection and quarantine (on symptom) rate varies based on the number of days, the host is carrying the virus [10] . Based on the findings regarding the spread of the virus, 14 different infection and quarantine rates are hyper-parameters that are based on the hygiene and social-distancing practices assumed for these hosts. The paper's contributions are as follows: