Selected article for: "lockdown end and low remain"
Author: Francisco Perez-Reche; Norval Strachan
Title: Importance of untested infectious individuals for the suppression of COVID-19 epidemics
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: i2rmc37q_23
    Snippet: We estimate that the lockdown ordered in Italy reduced the transmission by around 80%. Our prediction suggests that this will lead to a significant decrease of the number of deaths if it is kept for a long enough time. In particular, Figure 5 (b) shows a scenario in which the lockdown is kept at the same level for 90 days since its implementation on 11 March 2020. In this case, we predict around 69 [90% CI: (16, 568) ] daily deaths at the end of .....
    Document: We estimate that the lockdown ordered in Italy reduced the transmission by around 80%. Our prediction suggests that this will lead to a significant decrease of the number of deaths if it is kept for a long enough time. In particular, Figure 5 (b) shows a scenario in which the lockdown is kept at the same level for 90 days since its implementation on 11 March 2020. In this case, we predict around 69 [90% CI: (16, 568) ] daily deaths at the end of the lockdown. As for Hubei, a full removal of the lockdown leads to a fast resurge of the epidemic (Figure 5(b) ). For Italy, we estimate that an exit strategy from this lockdown should still keep the transmission at low values (~70% reduction) for the daily deaths to remain at a moderate value of around 100 (see Figure 5 (d)).

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