Geospatial analysis of COVID-19 and otolaryngologists above age 60

Ruthberg, Jeremy S.; Quereshy, Humzah A.; Jella, Tarun; Kocharyan, Armine; D'Anza, Brian; Maronian, Nicole; Otteson, Todd D.

Abstract Objective The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is disproportionately impacting older individuals and healthcare workers. Otolaryngologists are especially susceptible with the elevated risk of aerosolization and corresponding high viral loads. This study utilizes a geospatial analysis to illustrate the comparative risks of older otolaryngologists across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and materials Demographic and state population data were extracted from the State Physician Workforce Reports published by the AAMC for the year 2018. A geospatial heat map of the United States was then constructed to illustrate the location of COVID-19 confirmed case counts and the distributions of ENTs over 60 years for each state. Results In 2018, out of a total of 9578 practicing U.S. ENT surgeons, 3081 were older than 60 years (32.2%). The states with the highest proportion of ENTs over 60 were Maine, Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. The states with the highest ratios of confirmed COVID-19 cases to the number of total ENTs over 60 were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Michigan. Conclusions Based on our models, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Michigan represent states where older ENTs may be the most susceptible to developing severe complications from nosocomial transmission of COVID-19 due to a combination of high COVID-19 case volumes and a high proportion of ENTs over 60 years.