Author: Julien Riou; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boëlle
Title: Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data Document date: 2018_4_16
ID: 7gh1yzaa_7
Snippet: The ZIKV outbreaks in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Saint-Martin were modelled separately using a dynamic discrete-time SIR model within a Bayesian framework. Briey, the two main components of the model were: (i) a mechanistic reconstruction of the distribution of the serial interval of the disease (the time interval between disease onset in a primary case and a secondary case) that allows bypassing vector compartments; (ii) a transmission model for.....
Document: The ZIKV outbreaks in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Saint-Martin were modelled separately using a dynamic discrete-time SIR model within a Bayesian framework. Briey, the two main components of the model were: (i) a mechanistic reconstruction of the distribution of the serial interval of the disease (the time interval between disease onset in a primary case and a secondary case) that allows bypassing vector compartments; (ii) a transmission model for the generation of observed secondary cases in the human host. The generation time distribution was reconstructed by estimating the durations of each part of the infection cycle using disease-and mosquito-specic data from the literature, and assuming a xed local temperature of 28 • C, as described in more detail in the supplementary appendix. This led to gamma distributions with mean 2.5 weeks (standard deviation: 0.7) for ZIKV and with mean 1.6 weeks (sd: 0.6) for CHIKV.
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