Prior cardiovascular risk and screening echocardiograms predict hospitalization and severity of coronavirus infection among elderly Medicare patients

Ghany, Reyan; Palacio, Ana; Chen, Gordon; Dawkins, Elissa; McCarter, Daniel; Forbes, Emancia; Chung, Brian; Tamariz, Leonardo

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionally impacted the elderly. In the United States and Europe the mortality rate of elderly patients with COVID-19 is greater than 30%. Our aim is to determine predictors of COVID-19 related hospitalization and severity of disease among elderly Medicare patients in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including elderly Medicare COVID-19 patients across eight states. We collected data from the inpatient and outpatient electronic health record, demographic, clinical and echocardiographic predictors. Our primary outcomes were hospitalization and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Our secondary outcome was mortality. RESULTS: We identified 400 COVID-19 positive patients (incidence 5.2; (95% CI 4.7-5.7) per 1000 patients). The mean age of our patients was 72+/-8, 60% were female, 82% were minorities and had a mean Charlson score of 2.9+/-1.4. Two-hundred and forty-four patients were hospitalized due to COVID-19 (63%) and the mortality rate was 18%; 95% CI 14-22 with 1 patient still in the hospital. Age, socioeconomic status, Charlson score, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, grade 2 or 3 diastolic dysfunction, moderate or severe left ventricular hypertrophy were significant predictors of hospitalization and ARDS (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study reports a lower incidence on a COVID-19 cohort than previously reported. Predictors of poor outcomes included socio-economic, cardiovascular risk and echocardiographic measures. High touch care with early cardiovascular risk factor modification could explain the low risk of events in our population.