Author: Pramit Ghosh; Salah Basheer; Sandip Paul; Partha Chakrabarti; Jit Sarkar
Title: Increased Detection coupled with Social Distancing and Health Capacity Planning Reduce the Burden of COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities: A Proof of Concept Study using a Stochastic Computational Simulation Model Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 01f5mvsc_20
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054775 doi: medRxiv preprint decrease the peak prevalence of the I and F compartment but rather delayed them by ~10 days when the rate of detection and isolation of confirmed cases are kept at the initial value in the baseline model i.e. daily quarantine of 1 in 30 cases ( Figure 3A ). Extending the duration of SD to a continuous of .....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054775 doi: medRxiv preprint decrease the peak prevalence of the I and F compartment but rather delayed them by ~10 days when the rate of detection and isolation of confirmed cases are kept at the initial value in the baseline model i.e. daily quarantine of 1 in 30 cases ( Figure 3A ). Extending the duration of SD to a continuous of 5 weeks also delayed the peak prevalence without showing obvious impact on I and F compartments. Surprisingly, doubling the hospital bed capacity had little impact of the peak prevalence of the I and F compartments ( Figure 3B ), probably due to the overwhelming number of patients compared to the bed capacity.
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