Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_50
Snippet: We have developed a simulation-based framework to calculate the probability of cases arising in the future after the outcome day of the last detected case of an outbreak. Our simulations show that the reporting rate and the delay between the onset and the outcome of the last detected case are important factors that need to be considered in assessing the EO. We applied this simulation-based framework to analyze a range of simulated EVD outbreaks w.....
Document: We have developed a simulation-based framework to calculate the probability of cases arising in the future after the outcome day of the last detected case of an outbreak. Our simulations show that the reporting rate and the delay between the onset and the outcome of the last detected case are important factors that need to be considered in assessing the EO. We applied this simulation-based framework to analyze a range of simulated EVD outbreaks with different levels of superspreading consistent with EVD epidemiology, and different scenarios spanning extreme assumptions about the effectiveness of case isolation (no case isolation or pessimistic transmission to perfect case isolation or optimistic transmission).
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