In search for the hotspots of Disease X: A biogeographic approach to mapping the predictive risk of WHO s Blueprint Priority Diseases

Soushieta Jagadesh; Marine Combe; Mathieu Nacher; Rodolphe Ellie Gozlan

We found elevation to have a significant influence on the distribution of Nipah and coronavirus diseases. Studies have hypothesized that Nipah emergence in lower Gangetic plains and at the low-lying backwaters could be attributed to flooding, which causes destruction of mammal habitats (17) . Rapid changes to habitats lead to starvation and migration of the known reservoirs of the Nipah virus, the bats, with contamination of fruit trees near human dwelling and increased exposure to the pathogen. Our results confirm this hypothesis associated with low-lying plains, flooding and emergence of Nipah disease. Coronaviruses are also linked with bat reservoirs. We hypothesize that similar events leading to destruction of bat habitats due to flooding at the lowlying regions such the wadis near Jeddah and Zhujiang Basin at the Province of Guangdong triggered the emergence of MERS and SARS respectively.