Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in COVID19 cases

Frederik Verelst; Elise J. Kuylen; Philippe Beutels

Flattening the curve to reduce healthcare pressure in the EU Several institutions have communicated the necessity to 'flatten the curve' in order to lower pressure on health care institutions and to buy time for antivirals and other medication to become available in the short term and vaccines in the longer term. Remuzzi & Remuzzi reported on March 12 th that in Italy ICU bed occupation would exceed capacity [1] . From around the same time, other countries increasingly implemented large scale interventions such as household isolation and school closure [2, 3] . Important urgent questions as the epidemic unfolds are (a) how close other countries are from reaching an Italy-like pressure on the health system, (b) which countries are closest to such a situation, and (c) what pressure will countries experience at the peak and how will that pressure affect treatment of cases . Furthermore, policy makers require information on the magnitude of additional health care capacity that is needed when at a later stage, new exponential growth may occur after some of the large scale interventions are gradually eased and, perhaps, re-implemented.