Modeling the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Mass Transportation Systems

Buhat, C. A. H.; Lutero, D. S.; Olave, Y. H.; Torres, M. C.; Rabajante, J. F.

Mass transportation is one of the areas that are badly hit by respiratory infectious disease outbreaks due to moderate to high exposure risk to pathogens brought about by the interaction among commuters. Here, we formulate agent-based models that simulate the spread of a respiratory infectious disease in a train wagon in the Manila Light Rail Transit System, and in a 49-seater public utility bus. We consider preventive measures such as implementation of social distancing, and limitation of interaction or movement among the commuters to investigate how these measures will inhibit disease transmission. We also consider the effect of protective gears and practices, crowd density, and prevalence of disease in the community on the possible number of newly-infected individuals. Our simulations show that (i) individuals must have protection with more than 90% effectiveness to inhibit transmission of the disease; (ii) social or physical distancing by more than 1m distance reduces the risk of being infected; (iii) minimizing movement or interaction with other passengers reduces the risk of transmission by 50%; (iv) passenger capacity should be less than 10-50% of the maximum seating capacity to reduce the number of infections depending on the level of imposed social distancing and passenger interaction; (v) vehicles with greater number of occupied seating capacity generate higher number of infections but vehicles with smaller dimensions have faster disease transmissions; and (vi) ideal set-up for a 24-seater train wagon (49-seater bus) is to allow a maximum of 12 (24) passengers, with little to no interaction among passengers, with social distancing of more than 1m distance apart, and each person has a protection with 90% effectiveness as much as possible. These results can aid policy makers in determining optimal strategies to minimize infections while maintaining transportation services during pandemics or disease outbreaks.