How much of SARS-CoV-2 Infections is India detecting? A model-based estimation

Srinivas Goli; K.S. James

Our estimates suggest that the total number of COVID-19 infections in India could be around 1, 59,939 instead of the 5,480 confirmed cases as on 8th April. As a result, the detection rate of infections for the country as a whole remains merely at 3.6%, below the world average of 6%. Based on the evidence from other countries, we assume that a major share (85%) of these cases may be those with milder symptoms, who may not have ended up in hospitals 6 . However, we found a huge variation within India. Among 13 states which have more than 100 COVID-19 cases, the detection rate varies from 81.9% (of 410 estimated infections) in Kerala to 0.8% (of 35487 estimated infections) in Madhya Pradesh and 2.4% (of 7431 estimated infections) in Gujarat. The detection rate in Maharashtra (the biggest COVID-19 infected state) is also very low with 1.8% (of 61,268 estimated infections). However, Rajasthan is moderately doing well in terms of the detection rate of infections by confirming 15.8% of total estimated infections. Even, economically and health systems wise better-off states such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are performing poorly in terms of detection rate; thus, experiencing more deaths than Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh where more individuals were tested than estimated infections (Figure1 & Table 1 ).