Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_41
Snippet: In absolute terms, the first two governmental interventions brought a reduction of the initial growth rate from λ * 0 = 30% to 14% and then down to 5%. However, these numbers still implied exponential growth. Only with the third intervention, i.e. the contact ban, we found first evidence that we have reached the transition in new case numbers from growth to decay. The decay rate of about −1% (CI [−4%, 2%]) is close to zero. This still implie.....
Document: In absolute terms, the first two governmental interventions brought a reduction of the initial growth rate from λ * 0 = 30% to 14% and then down to 5%. However, these numbers still implied exponential growth. Only with the third intervention, i.e. the contact ban, we found first evidence that we have reached the transition in new case numbers from growth to decay. The decay rate of about −1% (CI [−4%, 2%]) is close to zero. This still implies that already a minor increase in the spreading rate may again switch the dynamics to the unstable regime with exponential growth.
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