Examining the immediate effects of COVID-19 on residential and commercial burglaries in Michigan: An interrupted time-series analysis

Carter, Travis M.; Turner, Noah D.

Purpose Research assessing the relationship between COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and crime is growing. Attention to the nuances of burglary and intra-state variation in lockdown restrictions has received less attention. The current study contributes to this ongoing body of research by investigating the relationship between COVID-19 lockdown restrictions and burglary across four cities in Michigan. Method We use an interrupted time-series design to analyze weekly counts of residential and non-residential burglary from 2018 to 2020 in four Michigan cities: Detroit, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Lansing. Results Findings demonstrate that the relationship between the lockdown and weekly counts of burglary vary by the type of burglary and the city being analyzed. Residential burglaries in half of the sampled cities declined during the Michigan lockdown order. Commercial burglaries increased during the lockdown order in only one of the four cities examined. Conclusions City-wide crime trends following lockdown orders during the pandemic are not shared equally and vary according to the type of burglary under examination. In studying the effects of COVID-19 on crime, researchers should account for crime- and city-specific dynamics which may influence crime trends. Further, practitioners and policymakers should consider the impact of similar lockdown orders on burglary trends during public health emergencies.