Author: Huber, Greg; Kamb, Mason; Kawagoe, Kyle; Li, Lucy M; Veytsman, Boris; Yllanes, David; Zigmond, Dan
Title: A minimal model for household effects in epidemics. Cord-id: 9l3uw3yo Document date: 2020_10_21
ID: 9l3uw3yo
Snippet: Shelter-in-place and other confinement strategies implemented in the current COVID-19 pandemic have created stratified patterns of contacts between people: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between the households. The epidemic transmission dynamics is significantly modified as a consequence. We introduce a minimal model that incorporates these household effects in the framework of mean-field theory and numerical simulations. We show that the reproduction number R 0 depen
Document: Shelter-in-place and other confinement strategies implemented in the current COVID-19 pandemic have created stratified patterns of contacts between people: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between the households. The epidemic transmission dynamics is significantly modified as a consequence. We introduce a minimal model that incorporates these household effects in the framework of mean-field theory and numerical simulations. We show that the reproduction number R 0 depends on the household size in a surprising way: linearly for relatively small households, and as a square root of size for larger households. We discuss the implications of the findings for the lockdown, test, tracing, and isolation policies.
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