Particulate air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in the tropics: impact on the elderly

Yap, Jonathan; Ng, Yixiang; Yeo, Khung Keong; Sahlén, Anders; Lam, Carolyn Su Ping; Lee, Vernon; Ma, Stefan

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has a significant health impact. Most data originate from temperate regions. We aim to study the health impact of air pollution, particularly among the elderly, in a tropical region. METHODS: A daily time-series analysis was performed to estimate excess risk (ER) of various air pollutants on daily death counts amongst the general population in Singapore from 2001 to 2013. Air pollutants included particulate matters smaller than 10 μm, and 2.5 μm (PM(10), PM(2.5)), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), ozone (O(3)) and sulphur dioxide (SO(2)). The studied outcomes were non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Single-day lag and distributed lag models were studied and adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: In single-day lag models, a 10 μg/m(3) increase in particulate matter was associated with significant increases in non-accidental (PM(10) ER: 0.627%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.260–0.995% and PM(2.5) ER: 0.660%; 95% CI: 0.204–1.118%) and cardiovascular mortality (PM(10) ER: 0.897; 95% CI: 0.283–1.516 and PM(2.5) ER: 0.883%; 95% CI: 0.121–1.621%). This was significant in the elderly ≥ 65 years but not in those < 65 years and were seen in the acute phase of lag 0-5 days. Effects by other pollutants were minimal. For cardiovascular mortality, the effects turned protective at a cumulative lag of 30 days in the elderly and could due to “harvesting”. CONCLUSIONS: These first contemporary population-based data from an equatorial country with tropical climate show that exposure to particulate air pollution was significantly associated with non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality, especially in the elderly. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12940-019-0476-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.