Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Georgia, USA, 2020

Muniz-Rodriguez, K.; Chowell, G.; Schwind, J. S.; Ford, R.; Ofori, S. K.; Ogwara, C. A.; Davies, M. R.; Jacobs, T.; Cheung, C.-H.; Cowan, L. T.; Hansen, A. R.; Fung, I. C.-H.

Objective: SARS-CoV-2 has significantly impacted Georgia, USA including two major hotspots, Metro Atlanta and Dougherty County in southwestern Georgia. With government deliberations about relaxing social distancing measures, it is important to understand the trajectory of the epidemic in the state of Georgia. Methods: We collected daily cumulative incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Georgia. We estimated the reproductive number (Re) of the COVID-19 epidemic on April 18 and May 2 by characterizing the initial growth phase of the epidemic using the generalized-growth model. Results: The data presents a sub-exponential growth pattern in the cumulative incidence curves. On April 18, 2020, Re was estimated as 1.20 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.20) for the state of Georgia, 1.10 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.20) for Dougherty County, and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.20) for Metro Atlanta. Extending our analysis to May 2, 2020, Re estimates decreased to 1.10 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.10) for the state of Georgia, 1.00 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.10) for Dougherty County, and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.10) for Metro Atlanta. Conclusions: Transmission appeared to be decreasing after the implementation of social distancing measures. However, these results should be interpreted with caution when considering relaxing control measures due to low testing rates.