Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease

Konstans Wells; Rodrigo K. Hamede; Menna E. Jones; Paul A. Hohenlohe; Andrew Storfer; Hamish I. McCallum

preferred strategy may be to avoid interference to allow a new long-term endemic disease 72 state or pathogen extinction to be reached as quickly as possible (Gandon et al. 2013) . 73 Longer-term evolutionary processes can operate to ultimately reduce the impact of the 74 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/392324 doi: bioRxiv preprint 4 disease on the host population (Fenner 1983 , Kerr 2012 , and inappropriate disease 75 management strategies may slow down evolution of both host and pathogen. 76 Models of infectious diseases in the early stages of emergence typically focus on 77 estimating R0, the number of secondarily infected individuals when one infected individual is 78 introduced into a wholly susceptible population (Lloyd- Smith et al. 2005 ). This is a key 79 parameter for devising strategies to limit invasion or control an outbreak because it allows the